Tourism forecast to grow at 3-4pc

he World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) is predicting global tourism growth of between three and four per cent in 2010 after a fourth-quarter recovery in 2009, the UN body's secretary general said yesterday. The UNWTO said global tourism fell a less-than-expected four per cent to 880 million international arrivals in 2009, thanks to a return to growth in the fourth quarter, led by the Asia, Pacific and Middle East regions. "The global economic crisis aggravated by the uncertainty around the ... (H1N1) pandemic turned 2009 into one of the toughest years for the tourism sector," UNWTO Secretary General Taleb Rifai said. "However, the results of recent months suggest that recovery is underway, and even somewhat earlier and at a stronger pace than initially expected," he added. Europe, which receives over half the world's tourists, was among the hardest hit in 2009 and is expected to be the slowest to recover this year, Mr Rifai said. In Tanzania, arrivals in the first 10 months of 2009 fell 10.2 per cent due to the effects of the global downturn and the year was expected to end with a decline of eight per cent, tourism officials said recently. The most significant drop occurred in the first six months of the year, before tourist arrivals in the country started to pick up again in July, Mr Ibrahim Mussa, assistant director at the division of tourism in the ministry of natural resources and tourism, told Reuters early this year. "People usually book holidays to Tanzania one year in advance so we didn't feel the effects of the downturn last year," Mr Mussa said. Arrivals in the first 10 months fell to 576,643 from 641,951 for the same period in 2008. Full year arrival figures and earnings from the sector, which brought in $1.3 billion in 2008, will be released next month. The sector, whose contribution to the national economy rose sharply a decade ago, currently accounts for 25 per cent of the foreign exchange earnings and 17.2 per cent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). Before the recession that has devastated the tourism industry worldwide, Tanzania had expected to host 950,000 visitors this year, which would have made the economy generate some $1 billion (about Sh1.3 trillion). Last year, the industry attracted about 840,000 tourists. Officials hope the sector, which attracts tourists with its offerings of wildlife safaris, mountain climbing and beach holidays, ranks as the country's biggest foreign exchange earner, will rebound quickly. "Our target is to reach one million tourists in the year 2012 and $1.5 billion in revenues," said Mr Amant Macha, director of marketing at the Tanzania Tourist Board. "There is hope that by mid-2010 people may find this threat of financial crisis is over, we are praying for that." Mr Macha said Tanzania hopes to boost visitor numbers by attracting soccer fans heading to South Africa for the 2010 World Cup, and South Africans keen to avoid the three million people expected to descend on their country during the tournament. America is the leading source of tourists to Tanzania, with 66,000 visiting in 2008, followed by 58,000 British holidaymakers. "We are also aiming at new markets, including the Indians, Chinese, Japanese; we have also Australians, eastern Europeans and of course Russians," said Mr Macha. The country is also keen to market less-visited game parks in the south of the country, and develop coastal beach resorts to mop up spillover from the Zanzibar archipelago. The tropical island destination, which relies on tourism for more than 25 per cent of its gross domestic product, has also been hit by the global downturn, with a 12 per cent drop in arrivals last year from 2007. "We want to open up our markets. We are really going for Russia and emerging markets," said Mr Ali Khalil Mirza, acting head of the Zanzibar Commission of Tourism. Traditionally, Italians make up a third of all arrivals to Zanzibar and 40 per cent of visitors arrive on charter packages. In Zanzibar's Stone Town, there are signs the drive to market the destination to new markets is paying off as Japanese tourists wandered slowly on the narrow winding streets, where boutique hotels alternate with crumbling 19th-century edifices. "We enjoy here. I like this weather, humid and hot," said Mr Miyako Saito, 33, a tourist from Japan. "When they see us they call 'China China' but I think for now the only Chinese people they see are only here for business." Mr Mirza said Zanzibar was targeting a steady arrivals growth rate of 10 percent a year, with an eye on 200,000 direct arrivals for 2011, up from 128,000 in 2008.