Hunger threat forecast

Urgent action is needed to prevent hundreds of millions more people slipping into hunger as a result of volatile food prices and increasing energy and water scarcity, claims international agency Oxfam.

Decades of underinvestment in agriculture coupled with the increasing threat of climate change mean that despite recent price falls, future food security is not guaranteed, and in fact the situation could get worse. The warning comes in two new reports, A Billion Hungry People and The Feeding of the Nine Billion, published by Oxfam and the UK think tank, Chatham House respectively .

Although global food prices have fallen in the last few months, they are not back to previous levels, and are likely to rise sharply again in the future. Furthermore, price volatility itself is a problem, and more needs to be done to address the underlying structural issues that cause the chronic hunger affecting one in six people in the world today, says Oxfam.

“This should be a wake-up call for all those who believe that the food crisis is over,” said Barbara Stocking, Oxfam Chief Executive. “World leaders have a window of opportunity to prevent a worse situation resulting from the triple crunch of the economic crisis, climate change, and energy and water scarcity. They must act urgently to turn their plans into coordinated action that addresses immediate needs and begins to implement long-term reforms. Failure to act will see millions more people falling into hunger.”
Oxfam said current severe food shortages in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique and Zimbabwe are evidence that the global food crisis is far from over. Even before recent price rises, there were over 850 million people classified as undernourished. Now, there are nearly a billion, as a result of the price rises, alongside other factors such as political instability and conflict.
The Feeding of the Nine Billion predicts demand for food will increase as the world’s population grows by 2.5 billion to 9.2 billion by 2050. It also notes a UN forecast that climate change will increase the number of undernourished people worldwide by between 40 million and 170 million.
The report includes recommendations for reform of the humanitarian aid system and makes a strident call to poor countries to do their bit by investing more in agriculture, targeting women and small-scale producers. Developing countries must increase social protection measures for vulnerable populations – including cash payments and employment creation schemes for those at risk of hunger. Rich countries must ensure long-term predictable funding to developing countries for investment in agriculture and climate change adaptation.

The food crisis in figures
One in six of the world’s population is hungry, almost a billion people.
Between 50% and 60% of all childhood deaths in the developing world are hunger related.
The death risk is 2.5 times higher for children with only mild malnutrition than it is for children who are adequately nourished.
The proportion of overseas development assistance spent on agriculture has fallen from almost 25% in 1980 to just 3% today.
Poor people are particularly vulnerable to changes in food prices with many spending up to 80% of their income on food.
This should be a wake-up call for all those who believe that the food crisis is over.